A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
